Glen James and Vince Scully discuss a listener’s question about market movements – should you move to cash?
Watch the full episode: https://youtu.be/1oA0_Jq136g
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This video is for education and entertainment purposes only and is intended for Australian residents. It is not a substitute for professional financial, tax or legal advice. Any advice provided is general financial advice only, which does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances before acting on it. If you choose to buy a financial product, read the relevant product disclosure statement (PDS) and target market determination (TMD), and seek personal advice from a licensed adviser. We may discuss products, services or listener questions in this video for illustration and entertainment purposes. It is impossible to provide personal advice in this format, as we don’t know your individual financial situation. We may also change the names of questioners for privacy. While we do our best to provide accurate information, we accept no responsibility for any inaccuracies. SYMO Interactive Pty Ltd (trading as Retire Right Australia) and Glen James are authorised representatives of MoneySherpa Pty Ltd, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence 451289. Martin McGrath, Financial Edge Group and their employed financial advisers are authorised representatives of Synchron Advice, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence 243313. Please read our Financial Services Guide at moneypodcast.com.au.
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@richardwarren-smith4269
Just started watching you guys a few weeks ago, fantastic financial ,commonsense discussions. I really appreciate the effort you go to in making these videos.
@Jonoz1969
New subscriber, thanks for the content. If printing money does not create inflation, what does ? and why we do have inflation here in Australia beyond the underreported CPI data?. Surely all the covid money printed here in OZ created some of the inflation, dont believe we can blame the failed net zero policies on their own: "we have inflation because energy price is up". More money chasing same or fewer goods.
Also found interesting your reaction to Robert Kiyosaki's comment, he has stated in many occasions that the recessions never occurred in recent decades due to to quantitative easing, money printing at levels the world has never seen before. (2008 and beyond, Obama bailing banks with tax payers money). I think his point of view is valid. If the government prints money and acts as the last resort buyer, patches holes, etc = no recessions, makes sense to me. Just as much as Albo brings 10x the levels of migration to manipulate a struggling economy. in both scenarios, government intervention is stopping crashes, natural crashes from occurring.
Gold vs the Aussie $$ is signalling the incompetence of our politicians policies and money management. The worst is not over, $20mill for machete bins in Melbourne , for example. Someone inflated their pockets there, thats for sure.
Keep up the good work, thanks.
@Grumen67
Great video guys…love the analogy comparing how would you out smart the markets to the Ocean. Made total sense. Keep up the great work and the fantastic content,
@grahamfleming2644
I think it was Costello who sold the gold🤦🏻
@aaronhopkins6697
Since the 1970 gold has only risen 8% this bloke is either dumb as dog 💩 or he is just trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes. Or I'm as dumb as dog shit because gold has doubled in price in the last two years. So that in my mind equals, a 100% rise in the price of gold. Or am I wrong. When in Australia a year ago I could buy an ounce of gold for three thousand dollars and now it will cost me over $6000 to buy an ounce. In my maths that is a 100% increase in the last year, not 8%. Mate I feel you need to go back to school for a math re-test.
@paully9999
Guys , is this an older episode ? I am either having deja view or I’m a fortune teller ….
@jane4036
Where did the 14x replies and comments to this comment go?
@AndrewRod-c5v
Stay in the market ! Pr buy dividends stocks
@Crypto-w8g8u
More legs
@Crypto-w8g8u
All world index, excl US😊
@Crypto-w8g8u
Keep 2-3 years cash, thus avoids having to dip into your portfolio during a downturn
@xponeke2440
Australians couldn't buy gold till 1976. Gold is also not important part of most people's portfolios,, in fact most people have no allocation. This clown is an apologist for standard financial advisor BS.
@jameshorsburgh5465
Ah yes a retelling of “modern economic theory”. Debt doesn’t matter….hmmm. He’s measuring the S&P 500 in fiat currency. Worthless debased junk. Add phony inflation and CPI and Golds been killing everything for a decade with ZERO counter-party risk.
@lordblackwood880
Be greedy when others are fearful.
@LesGray-i9p
A lot of points to highlight here. PE ratios in themselves don’t indicate value. What does is the PEG ratio. That is the current PE divided by the expected eps growth for the next year. Any value below 1 represents value.
That is A PE of 30 might be considered high but if the expected eps growth is 40% the next year it represents value.
Markets can rally far more than pundits expect due to the novice factor as mentioned. Many get on the bullish bandwagon and push it higher beyond reasonable value.
The high US debt does matter. It still needs to be funded and ATM higher long term rates are being required to attract that capital. It may not matter what the short term cash rate is if investors don’t accept the yield.
It currently costs the Treasury department over $1T to finance the deficit which now totals over $38T,
Governments have been investing in gold to diversify away from holding a depreciating $US.
QE is inflationary as shown after the massive cash injection in 2020 and why rates had to rise so much in 2022 and 2023. This will soon happen again and Governments use inflation to erode the value of their long term debt.
Re investing in accumulation and pension phases, for those under 55 investing in growth or balanced sectors has proven to yield long term returns.
The risk rises over this age as if a bear market occurs at retirement as in October 2007 then their pension could drastically eat into their capital depending on their balance and lifestyle required. The share market fell 55% from then til March 6 2009 (not 2010). That’s 17 months.
That’s where cash is required. 2 years is usually sufficient. That can be from cash accounts and/or dividends.
It’s generally been a case of the 1st substantial 3% to 5% fall in an overnight US market that dictates major shift in fundamental judgement and sentiment. That’s when it pays to cash up.
It’s important to have an exit strategy when entering a trade. This is more involved but basically it’s sensible to take profits along the uptrend where that capital growth can be used for income in bear markets.
The most important fact for investors is to recognise corrections are time to buy not sell. Not all at once though.
So much to highlight but that’s for another day
@trishmorton2035
If Vas and VGS isn't balanced then what is?
@stevegeek
Some good advice. I like the analogy about trying to fight the ocean. I needed to hear this today, nervously looking at my portfolio going down and wondering "should I sell and go to cash…?".
@leobrown6875
The uk stock market has just hit a all time high and its in the crap .just keep things invested and it will all work out
@markwolovetz
Lol
@geoffreystone4849
If you shift to cash in a bank, the bank may collapse. The Feds can't bail out the debt ridden banks. The debt is too large this time around. Hide it under your bed and get a wheelbarrow to take it to buy food? Just like Germany in the 1930s.
Buy gold and silver metals, miners or EFTs.
@HarrisonFox-d2e
lol this is bull shit the American gov could wipe out its debt buy printing money
@rabekahscottheart4589
Interesting. Thank you 😊
@AnthonyOSullivan-z9p
Holding cash is the equivalent to losing money
@AnthonyOSullivan-z9p
When everyone is calling a crash there cannot be a crash coming